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MBIE publishes New Zealand Tourism forecasts for 2019 - 2025

Contributor:
Fuseworks Media
Fuseworks Media

Moderate growth is forecasted for both international arrivals and spend in New Zealand across the forecast period. Key factors contributing to the overall growth forecast include strong growth in the US in the short-term, and growth in Asian markets, especially China in the longer-term.

Visitor arrivals to New Zealand are expected to grow an average of 4.0 per cent each year, reaching 5.1 million visitors in 2025 from 3.9 million in 2018.

Total international spend is expected to reach $15.0 billion in 2025 (excluding international airfares and education), up 34 per cent from 2018 (when it was $11.2 billion), or 4.3 per cent per year. Spend growth is forecast to grow at slightly higher than the growth of visitor numbers, suggesting that spend per visitor will increase.

Australia is New Zealand's largest visitor market, providing 1.5 million visitors in 2018, and is expected to remain so over the period of the forecasts. We expect this market to have an average growth of 2.5 per cent a year to 2025.

Short term growth will be driven by a range of factors, especially available seat capacity, and rising fuel costs affecting ticket prices and demand.

Australia is currently the largest market by spend, and will remain so, though Chinese spend will reduce the gap by 2025.

The forecasts were developed using MBIE's tourism forecasting model with input and advice provided by the Tourism Forecast Moderation Committee (TFMC), a technical moderation committee of industry participants, including Air New Zealand, the four main international airports, TIA and Tourism New Zealand.

The forecast results are available on the MBIE website. Includes an online tool, a report, and an infographic.

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