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NZ red meat producers benefitting due to African Swine Fever

Contributor:
Fuseworks Media
Fuseworks Media

With African Swine Fever (ASF) set to restrict global growth in animal proteins, New Zealand red meat producers can look forward to continued strong pricing for their beef and sheepmeat exports in the coming year, according to Rabobank’s just-released Global Animal Protein Outlook 2020.

In the bank’s flagship annual outlook for the animal proteins sector, Seeking Opportunities in an Uncertain World, Rabobank says while production growth is expected in most regions in 2020, "the impact of ASF in Asia overwhelms the outlook", as China’s production losses exceed the growth in all other regions combined.

Chinese pork production is expected to decline by a further 10 to 15 per cent from 2019 levels and, while less than the decline in 2019, the report says it will ensure 2020 production is well below the 2014-18 average, prior to the major ASF outbreak.

Pulling down overall growth, the report says, ASF brings uncertainty to the global animal protein outlook alongside trade disputes, sustainability developments and the ongoing rise of alternative proteins.

New Zealand

Rabobank animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate said the pork supply gap created by ASF had been a key factor in the surge of New Zealand beef exports into China during 2019, and this trend was set to extend into 2020.

"Another significant jump in Chinese demand for New Zealand beef products is forecast over the next 12 months, further cementing China’s recently-acquired position as our largest export market for beef products. And, with this growth continuing to put upward pressure on export returns, we expect to see farmgate pricing at levels equal to, or above, those received in 2019," he said.

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