Data Summary: International travel and migration- february

Net migration (sa): 1060 (1850 last)

Net migration (12-mth total): 21,618 (22,600 last)

Visitor arrivals: -1.9% m/m, 4.0% y/y (-2.3%m/m last)

Key Points

Net immigration is still adding to population growth and is providing support to the economy. However, the degree of support being provided is waning. The likelihood of a stronger pick-up in departures remains a key risk going forward.

Lower visitor arrivals contrasted with a pick-up in resident short-term departures. However, visitor arrivals are still four percent up on a year ago and have being trending up, whereas departures have been on a declining trend. A continuation of these trends is an important requirement for the rebalancing of the economy towards the export sector.

Key results

On a seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded departures by 1,060 in February

2010, down from 1,850 in January 2010. It was the lowest monthly gain since January 2009 (800), and considerably below the average monthly readings over the past year (1,900 inflow).

Contributing to the smaller net increase was pick-up in PLT departures (up 7.2 percent mom) as well as slowdown in arrivals (down 5.7 percent). In February, net inflows of migrants came from India (1,200), China and Malaysia (each 500), and the United Kingdom (400). The net outflow of 1,900 PLT migrants to Australia was down from 2,600 in February 2009, and was the lowest outflow for a February month since 2004 (1,400).

Annual net PLT migration eased to 21,600 persons in February. However, it is considerably up on previous year levels (the annual inflow was 6,200 a year ago).

Short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 267,900 in February, up 11,300 (4 percent) from February 2009. In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of visitor arrivals was down 1.9 percent in February, following a 2.3 percent monthly decline in January. Visitor arrivals have been trending up, with arrivals in three months to February, 1.2 percent up on the previous three months.

The patchy nature of the global recovery is becoming evident when looking at the composition of visitor arrivals. Visitor arrivals from Australia numbered 1.099 million in the February 2010 year, up 119,300 (12 percent) from 2009. Fewer visitors came from Japan (down 18,600 or 19 percent), Korea (down 17,500 or 24 percent), the United Kingdom (down 16,900 or 6 percent), and China (down 10,100 or 9 percent) in the February 2010 year, compared with the February 2009 year.

Short-term departures rebounded strongly in February (up 6.2 percent in seasonally adjusted terms). However, the overall trend has been fairly subdued, with departure numbers over the last three months largely static compared to three months earlier.