A low over northern New Zealand on Tuesday is expected to move out to the east of Gisborne during Wednesday. A strong to gale east to southeast airstream is expected to bring rain to the northeast of the North Island during this period.

There is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for the Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty as detailed in the latest Severe Weather Warning, and rain in these places should ease early Tuesday morning. There is low confidence that rainfall totals will reach warning levels over Gisborne and Hawkes Bay during Tuesday. The low should move further east on Thursday, with rain in the east of the North Island easing to showers.

A ridge should remain across the South Island throughout the period, however patchy rain is likely to affect eastern areas from Tuesday through to Thursday.