I intend this blog to be the first in a series looking at the three main internationally significant electoral contests to occur this year. They will be the Australian federal election, the British general election and the American mid-term elections.

These contests are looked upon as significant by New Zealanders (and by others around the world) due to the fact that the Australian and British elections are to similar Westminster-style parliaments while the American mid-terms will be a crucial barometer for President Obama's performance.

Today, I would like to look at the electoral contest looming across the Tasman. Later this year, Australians will head to the polls to pass judgement on Kevin Rudd and his Labor Government. Already, what was expected to be an easy ride to victory has turned into a bumpy one for Rudd and his team. Under fire for a botched home insulation scheme (overseen by federal Environment Minister and ex-Midnight Oil rocker Peter Garrett), a failed attempt to introduce an emissions trading scheme (ETS) following its blockage in the Senate, and a difficult transition to a New Zealand-style national standards assessment system for school children and ongoing questions about health policy, Rudd has his work cut out for him.

These stumbles have aided the opposition led by former Howard Liberal Government health minister Tony Abbott. Before Abbott's accession to the leadership last year, it seemed that all hope of a Liberal-National Coalition victory had evaporated under former leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson. The Rudd Labor Government was in the ascendant and this made it difficult for the Liberal and National parties to gain any traction against a popular, new administration. Moves to withdraw Australian forces from Iraq (but sadly not from Afghanistan), improve funding for education and health services, the apology to the Aboriginal 'Stolen Generations', repeal of the notorious 'Work Choices' law and the signing of the Kyoto Protocol all went down well with the Australian electorate. While Rudd had his shortcomings in terms of being perceived in some quarters as a snobbish former diplomat and as a notoriously difficult boss of his staff and ministers, he has made up for this by heading what has otherwise been (until recently) a fairly successful government.

Now the tables are being turned. The sudden surge in the polls by the Australian Tory parties has come as somewhat of a surprise, especially after Labor implemented some very drastic neo-Keynesian economic stimulus policies that have kept the so-called Lucky Country out of recession. Their successful management of the economic crisis has seen unemployment fall faster than anywhere else in the Western world.

Yet some of the emerging issues outlined above have threatened to derail the Labor Government's groove. Until recently, the widely expected narrative for this year was that Tony Abbott, a gaffe-prone, conservative, right-wing John Howard acolyte would be the gift that would keep on giving for Labor. However, that has not been the case. In fact, while I was in Australia at Christmas (which was shortly after Abbott was elected leader) he made some very good television appearances. It looked as if the Liberal's key advisors (the notorious Aussie right-wing political propagandists Crosby-Textor) had begun working their black magic, so much so that Abbott successfully exploited immigration issues, once a hardy Howard perennial. This forced Rudd to disappointingly backtrack on immigration issues after effectively ending the 'Pacific Solution' policy which saw immigrants from Afghanistan and other parts of Asia processed on Nauru. Australia's traditionally racist asylum policies once again came to the fore after Rudd persuaded the Indonesians to hold Sri Lankan Tamils who were fleeing persecution in their homeland.

Another weak spot for Rudd has emerged in an area which was previously a strength for him - the environment. The Senate blocked the Rudd Government's emissions trading scheme (ETS) legislation. An unholy alliance of the Liberals, Nationals, Greens and assorted Independents stymied Labor's plans to do so. Both the Liberals and the Greens have pointed out something that I have previously blogged on in that the ETS is effectively a regressive tax that will see electricity and energy prices rise across the board. This is the case as Labor's proposed ETS scheme is expected to hit many low and middle income Aussie families hard and this is why Tony Abbott's constant references to an emissions tax has resonated with significant sections of the Aussie electorate.

On health care, Rudd pledged to exercise greater federal control over the underfunded and ramshackle public health sector. Traditionally, the states have been constitutionally responsible for health policy but the federal government, wishing to fix up a creaking system, is seeking to take over the funding and administration of state public hospitals and most health services. When this idea was mooted in 2007, many Australians supported Labor's plans to modernise the health system in this way. But the state government's insistence that health remain a state responsibility has seen resistance to this idea grow. In education, the Rudd Government's desire to engineer an 'Education Revolution' initially went down well but now with the introduction of national standards in primary and secondary schools across Australia (overseen by Rudd's deputy and Education Minister Julia Gillard) resistance from both parents and particularly teachers ( a traditionally strong Labor-voting block) has seen the policy encounter (as it has in New Zealand) a turbulent beginning.

Yet, the Liberal-National Coalition have their own Achilles heel in terms of economic and industrial relations policies. The unpopular 'Work Choices' law which was the Australian version of New Zealand's old Employment Contracts Act has been declared dead by Tony Abott and his workplace relations spokesperson Joe Hockey but yet conflicting messages are emerging as to whether the Liberals and their National allies will introduce 'Work Choices' style policies if they win the federal election. Their desire to drastically haul back public spending has also been attacked by Labor at a time when the global economy is experiencing a shakey recovery.

These factors are all creating the conditions for a very close federal election. As this is being written, South Australians and Tasmanians are voting in crucial state elections that could both produce hung parliaments. While Labor has had electoral longevity (since 1995) in Tasmania, the same cannot be said of South Australia where only a year ago it looked as if Premier Mike Rann's Labor Government would be re-elected in a landslide. Now, the South Australian result could be tight following allegations that Rann had numerous sexual liaisons with a former parliamentary barmaid in his parliamentary office, an allegation that the premier (a close friend of Phil Goff's) has strenuously denied. While state electoral results are not often reflected in federal results due to the local nature of state polls, Rudd's advisors will be keeping a very close eye on the outcome of these state elections.

Cumulatively, Australian Labor at the federal level faces a very challenging electoral test later this year.  I expect that it will survive but, maybe, only just.