Today has been a very Black Friday for the Maori Party. It has issued an ultimatum to Hone Harawira - either resign from the party caucus or be expelled.

Effectively, today has spelt the end of Harawira's career with the Maori Party. What both Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia have told him is that he is a goner as they can "no longer control" their errant Te Tai Tokerau MP. Already all parties have conceded that he is an Independent MP in all but name.

With the high level of support that Harawira enjoys in his electorate, though, it seems that this expulsion will produce another crisis - a potentially divisive split within the party. Much of Harawira's support base will defect with him from the party over the next fortnight as his expulsion becomes a reality. This could deal a significant blow to the party and how fatal this could be will rest upon how many other party members from outside Harawira's electorate defect as well.

It is likely that any contagion effect might be limited to Harawira's own electorate and perhaps that of Pita Sharple's Tamaki Makaurau (Auckland Maori) seat to a minor extent. Otherwise, Tariana Turia (Te Tai Haururu) and Rahui Katene (Te Tai Tonga - Southern Maori) will continue to enjoy strong support from their local Maori Party electoral organisations.

But within the wider Maori electorate, the Harawira email to Buddy Mikaere has disappointed many. Ms Turia has this week reflected upon the fact that Harawira's email has also provided a sad excuse for some Pakeha voters to send racist emails to her office. The Maori Party leadership are now keen to see Harawira excised from within their ranks due to the damage that he is doing to the image of their party. Both Sharples and Turia have long emphasised that while their party is based on Maori tikanga and kaua (protocols and traditions) that they are also open to acccepting both Pakeha members and support. To many within the Pakeha electorate, Harawira's email has been (wrongly) misconstrued as representing the true nature of the Maori Party.

The problem of Harawira's potential expulsion also poses a conundrum for the left. Despite Harawira's penchant for waywardness, he has acted as a spokesperson for the plight of his own people and has supported some causes that the left has championed such as, for example, the anti-Waihopai spy base protests. While he did go awol from a parliamentary delegation in Australia, he did so for a reasonable purpose in that he wanted to show solidarity with the Aboriginal communities of the Northern Territory who were enduring John Howard's invasions of their communities in order to supposedly stamp out child abuse. The only thing that Harawira could have done in that case was to tell the parliamentary delegation as to where he was going and why and then seek leave in that way. Harawira has been critical of the role that big tobacco has played in addicting Maori communities to their products too, but his call for a complete ban on tobacco, while admirable, would not be workable.

However, the left would do well to watch how they give their support (if any) for Harawira. In his email response to Buddy Mikaere, he has gone beyond the boundaries of good taste or decency and did not address the legitimate concerns that Mikaere had about his un-approved sojourn (while on a parliamentary visit) to Paris. It must be remembered that his mother Titewhai is not a popular figure either and as I have remarked in a previous blog, she has convictions for assault against Maori patients at a Maori mental health unit during the 1980s.

The move to expel Hone might cost the Maori Party some support and a great deal of its membership in the short-to-medium term. How this translates into crucial long-term support for the remaining Maori Party MPs remains to be seen. Labour will be eyeing this situation with considerable interest as they want to re-take the Maori seats as part of a longer-term strategy to eventually reclaim government. Conversely, National will be viewing the Maori Party's woes with concern as if they lose a critical ally at the next election, then they could be faced with either having to rely on a potentially much reduced Act Party presence or on the need to gain an outright majority to govern in their own right, to survive. This scenario could eventuate, even if National gains the most seats at the next election.

At the end of the day it is the Maori Party  that has been adversely affected by Harawira's behaviour. If history is any guide, they will know the fate that befell the Alliance Party (to which I belong). And it is a schismatic split of enormous proportions that both Turia and Sharples will be working hard now to avoid.