Newt Gingrich's win in today's South Carolina primary has taken the Republican Party one step closer to defeat in November.

Why?

Well, the prospect of a prolonged, divisive primary campaign is in prospect. Until today, former Massachussets Governor Mitt Romney was the hot favourite to go all the way. But after Gingrich's stunning win in South Carolina, a state that borders his native Georgia, no more. And a disunited Republican Party, distracted by its own internal squabbling, will not be able to concentrate on the main enemy - President Barack Obama - at least for now.

Until ten days ago Romney held a commanding lead in South Carolina. Then Gingrich, one time Speaker of the House of Representatives during the 1990s, began surging in the polls. The former Speaker did so due to the massive outreach campaign he began to evangelical Christian conservatives who are a key Republican constituency both in that state and nationwide. 

This is an amazing outcome given that Gingrich has come under steady fire in recent days. The most concerted attack (probably engineered by the Romney camp) came from Gingrich's second wife in a television interview aired on ABC Television just days before the polls. This interview was clearly designed to hurt Gingrich with evengelicals but in the last Republican presidential debate on CNN he turned what could have been a massive disadvantage for him into an advantage by attacking moderator Anderson Cooper for merely raising the question. This produced a standing ovation from large segments of the audience - even from those not supporting Gingrich - and this performance probably turned the race. Clearly, Gingrich artfully turned himself into the victim of an attack from the liberal media and other opponents and right wing voters just lapped it up. Furthermore, Gingrich also (incredibly) fended off former Senator Rick Santorum who has made a great play for this constituency as well. All of these factors make today's primary the most stunning of any for at least 20 years. Not since Pat Buchanan almost upended President George HW Bush in New Hampshire in 1992 has there been a more stunning primary result.

For the Republican Party as a whole though, this does not augur well. I expect that there may not be a clear presidential nominee until April/May at the earliest. If Romney had wrapped up South Carolina tonight, then he would have been more or less a shoe-in for the remaining primary contests. Even if Gingrich had won in Florida (where he has lead in some past polls), Romney would still have had the momentum to carry him through. But not now. This race could be either Gingrich's or Romney's and it could even come down to a brokered convention where the two men will face off against one another. 

And this is why Gingrich's win will be welcomed in the White House. They know that if the Republicans continue fighting almost to the finish, they will not have enough time to re-group and rally around whoever their nominee will be. I hope that the Republicans do keep this up as while I have many criticisms of Obama from a left-wing perspective, I don't want to see another GOP administration taking office next January in the States. It now appears that a nascent economic recovery is taking place in America (thanks to a Keynesian stimulus) while troops have largely been withdrawn from two of the country's longest and most unpopular imperialist misadventures- Afghanistan and Iraq. If I were an American voter, I would support Obama as being the lesser of two evils. And as Obama has been trailing in the polls, today's Republican primary result could well lift him to an unexpected victory in November.

Still, a week as they say is a long time in politics. Republican voters next go to the polls in ten days in Florida. This is now anyone's race. Forget Santorum and Paul - they will be also rans. Watch Romney and Gingrich - they will engage in a political brawl that would make a saloon brawl like the ones you see in a Western movie look tame! And we're only in January.