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New Poll: Big boost for ACT would allow Centre-Right to govern without NZ First – NZTU

National is up 2.6 points on our last poll in November 2023 to 39.6% while Labour drops marginally to 27.9% (-0.4 points). ACT is up significantly to 13.7% (+5.6%) while the Greens are down substantially to 9.0% (-4.8 points).

The smaller parties are NZ First on 5.0% (-1.0 points), Te Pāti Māori on 2.3% (-1.1% points), and others combined were on 2.5%.

This month’s results are compared to the last Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll conducted in November 2023.

National is up 3 seats on November 2023 to 49 while Labour is unchanged on 35 seats. ACT has jumped up 7 seats to 17 while the Greens are down 6 seats to 11. NZ First is down 2 seats to 6 while Te Pāti Māori is unchanged also on 6 seats.

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would have an overhang of 3 seats and a total of 123 seats.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 72 seats is up 8 from November 2023 while the Centre-Left is down 7 seats. This is the biggest gap between blocs since Sep 2021 when the Centre-Left led by 27 seats.

On these numbers, National and ACT could form a majority government on their own without the support of NZ First.

Christopher Luxon drops 4 points on November 2023 to 29% in the preferred Prime Minister stakes. Chris Hipkins is up 1 point to 19%.

David Seymour increases 6 points to 10% while Winston Peters is up 1 point on 6%. Chlöe Swarbrick is also on 6% unchanged from November 2023.

More detailed results, including ‘country direction’ data and our new ‘government approval’ rating, are available on our website.

 

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